The United States has lessons to learn to avoid being the 2040 Ukraine.
Strong parallels exist between the stories in my first two books and the situation playing out in Ukraine today, so much so that a reader teased me yesterday that I had provided Putin’s playbook. Several parallels are particularly concerning.
Russia seeks to expand its territory to include more ethnic Russians ✔
In my books, Mexico is part of a coalition working to annex Southwest U.S. territory heavily populated by Mexican Americans and Mexicans. (The book is not an anti-immigrant or anti-Mexican rant, so you’ll need to read to understand the full context.)
Speakers of minority Russian language considered “oppressed” ✔
Schools in the Southwest and other parts of the country are increasingly teaching in all-day Spanish, including at the community college level. Not expecting immigrants to learn English is increasingly being advocated as a civil rights issue, when it is instead a path to another layer of societal segregation on top of our existing segregation issues. Segregated societies are historically ripe for secession and annexation efforts.
Geographic concentration of Russian speakers provides clear starting point for invasion ✔
There are already several U.S. areas where speaking Spanish is critical to finding employment and fluency in English is not necessary. The scope of these territories is expanding.
Several internal political leaders in Crimea welcome invasion ✔
Too many political leaders focus on their own self-interest. For many in Crimea, the opportunities for political and economic gains may be greater under Russia than under Ukraine. It is certainly conceivable that we will have U.S. politicians who think they’ll have more power if the nation divides.
Weakened, indebted economy in Ukraine undermines border protection resolve and economic response options ✔
My distaste for our high and growing debt levels is driven, in part, by my belief that it substantially restricts our crisis response options. Ukraine’s response options are highly restricted by both Russia’s military superiority and Ukraine’s tenuous economic circumstances.
Ukrainian military defections enable takeover ✔
In both books, U.S. military defections are part of what enables the invasion effort in our Southwest. If you’ve read my books and still believe it can’t happen here, I welcome your rationale.
Ukrainian bases surrounded by invading troops, paralyzing response ✔
In my books, cartel-built tunnels (which the Department of Homeland Security recently admitted it may not be able to detect) provide the entry point to surround our bases in the Southwest before our military can respond to being surrounded.
Invasion is quickly on Ukraine’s land, making subsequent military response hazardous to citizens that Ukraine’s leaders are sworn to protect ✔
Once an invasion is on U.S. soil, with U.S. citizens as human shields for the attacking military, our military response options are substantially reduced.
Ukraine gave up its greatest military strength (nuclear weapons) in return for treaty assurances from the U.S., Great Britain, Germany and Russia that we would defend their territorial boundaries. ✔
The United Nations abrogates its agreements with the United States in my books, just as we and other nations are doing to Ukraine. Should we be surprised that others may not keep their commitments to us when we can’t be trusted to keep our commitments?
I wrote Melting Point 2040 and Secession 2041 because I’m worried we don’t recognize the long-term implications of our current policies. The crisis in Ukraine is providing a clear early warning that we must heed.